Next on Comedy Central: Joe Biden

Joe Biden makde it official today, he's running. His television debut as an official candidate will be on Comedy Central. Could it be more fitting? He'll be on Jon Stewart's "The Daily Show" tonight. Actually, I believe John Edwards announced in 2004 on the Daily Show. So it's not even original.

Anyway, Joe Biden never has seemed to have any problem getting money or media attention, so his candidacy can't be completely dismissed. But, has anyone seen any evidence of a passion for Joe Biden's candidacy among any segment of the population? I certainly haven't.

2008: More Purple States

Charlie Cook thinks there may be more purple states in 2008 than there were in 2000 and 2004. He lists 11 states that are becoming more purple:

Top strategists in both parties have identified 11 states as moving away from whichever party long dominated them. Seven that had been reliably Republican -- Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia, which have a combined 66 electoral votes -- are becoming less so.

Just four states -- Louisiana, Minnesota, West Virginia, and Wisconsin, with a total of 34 electoral votes -- are getting less Democratic. This amounts to a net shift of 32 electoral votes away from the GOP.

That couldn't be anything but a good thing, since it will force presidential candidates to campaign in places where they might not otherwise. Cook goes on to say this about Texas:

And given that non-Hispanic whites are now a minority of the Texas population, they eventually will be a minority of Lone Star State voters. Unless Republicans unexpectedly become dramatically more popular with Texas Hispanics or African-Americans, that state will become less reliably Republican within the next two or three presidential elections. Because Texas has 34 electoral votes, the prospect of its being in play would be terrifying to the GOP.

Too much to hope for? It sure would be nice...

2008 Tidbits

• NH-01: former Rep. Bradley will try to reclaim his seat.
• KS-02: Ryun will try to reclaim his old seat also.
• MA-Sen: Red Sox Pitcher Curt Schilling will not challenge John Kerry.
• Prez 08: Hillary calls for Don't Ask Don't Tell repeal
• Prez 08: Hillary way ahead in Democratic primary poll. Clinton 40%, Obama 25%, Edwards 23%
• Prez 08: Obama's facebook group is up to 159,000, almost 16% of their goal.
• MN-Sen: Al Franken is leaving his show to explore a challenge to Norm Coleman

Senate 2008 Rankings

Democratic Hold
DE-Biden
IL-Durbin
MI-Levin
RI-Reed
WV-Rockefeller

Democratic Watch-List
MA-Kerry
MT-Baucus

Likely Democratic
IA-Harkin

Leans Democratic
AR-Pryor
SD-Johnson

Tossup (Democratic Held)
LA-Landrieu
NJ-Lautenberg

Tossup (Republican Held)
CO OPEN (Allard)
MN-Coleman
NH-Sununu

Leans Republican
TX-Cornyn

Likely Republican
GA-Chambliss
SC-Graham
TN-Alexander
NC-Dole

Republican Watch List
ME-Collins
OK-Inhofe
AK-Stevens
NM-Domenici
OR-Smith

Republican Hold
AL-Sessions
ID-Craig
KS-Roberts
KY-McConnell
MS-Cochran
NE-Hagel
VA-Warner
WY-Enzi

The Fruits of Victory

Colorado's Sen. Wayne Allard and Rep. Marilyn Musgrave have decided not to push for an amendment to the constitution banning gay marriage in this Congress. From the Advocate (emphasis mine):

A proposed federal constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage nationwide has been shelved in light of the congressional takeover by the Democratic Party, The Pueblo [Colo.] Chieftain newspaper reports.

The proposal's sponsors, Sen. Wayne Allard and Rep. Marilyn Musgrave, said last week they have no plans to reintroduce their antigay legislation in the new Congress. "At this time I haven't discussed it with anyone," Allard told the newspaper on Thursday. "If we thought there was a decent chance to bring it to the floor for debate, I would, but with the new Congress, I'm not sure we will ever have that opportunity."

A Musgrave spokesman confirmed that the congresswoman would not introduce the legislation this year.

This is why it pays off for people interested in gay rights to support Democrats. Thank goodness the wicked wingnuts of the right have given up hope on this hateful amendment.

Kerry is Out

This is probably for the best (Boston Globe):

Senator John F. Kerry plans to announce today that he will not run in the 2008 presidential race, and will instead remain in Congress and seek reelection to his Senate seat next year, according to senior Democratic officials.

Kerry, a Massachusetts Democrat, plans to say he will remain in the Senate to recommit himself to efforts to extricate the United States from the war in Iraq. His decision to stay out of the presidential race reflects a realization that he would have had an uphill climb in capturing the Democratic nomination, given the other party heavyweights who are already in the race, according to the officials, who spoke to the Globe on condition of anonymity.

I did and still do like John Kerry. But he damaged himself with his botched joke before the election last year. And he never was the strongest candidate of the bunch anyway. The Democratic field has shaped up much earlier than for the 2004 election hasn't it? Should be a lot of stuff to blog about...

Democratic Response to the State of the Union

The response this year was one of the Democrats' strongest. It was delivered by Sen. James Webb, newly elected in 2006, ousting Republican Senator George Allen. Check it out:

Something For Everyone, A Tragedy Tonight!

Bush is giving his sixth State of the Union tonight from abysmal... nay Nixonian... approval ratings. A CBS poll from yesterday puts his approval rating at just 28%, the lowest of any poll by any polling firm during his presidency. And tonight, he will get a prime-time address in which to try and change that, and if history is any guide, he's going to blow it.

Lately his speeches have caused his approval rating to go down rather than up. There's a simple reason for it. The people want to hear that we're leaving Iraq, and anytime he says something to the contrary, like that we're sending more troops to Baghdad, the people are disappointed. He could change direction here tonight and start the withdrawal, but he won't. And so the people will be disappointed with him.

I usually don't watch his speeches any more. Frankly, he's a boring speaker who hard to listen to, and if I did listen it would only make me angry. But I probably will watch tonight. Why? Well, the Speaker of the House and the Vice President are the two people who sit behind the President during the State of the Union. And for the first time in Bush's Presidency, the Speaker of the House is a Democrat, and the majority of the audience also (Congress) will be Democratic. Which means the silly game those politicians play where some stand while others sit on particular applause lines will be more visible and more fun to watch. Also, for the first time in history, one of the people behind the President will be a woman.

So I'll be watching when Bush talks about human-animal hybrids, switchgrass, and steroids in professional sports, and how armies of steroid-laden human-switchgrass hybrids will be our saviors in Iraq. But what I'll really be looking to see, is a resurgent and confident Democratic Congress reacting. Hopefully, they won't disappoint me.

2008 Takes Shape

Hillary's in. Richardson's in. Brownback's in. It looks like the field is shaping up early. The candidates that were already running, but just hadn't announced yet were probably forced in by Obama's shrwed announcement strategy to keep from leaving Obama with uncontested media time for the next month or so.

So the Democratic field looks like this: Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), fmr Sen. John Edwards (D-NC), Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM), Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE), Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT), fmr Gov Tom Vilsack (D-IA), and fmr Sen. Mike Gravel (D-AK). (Did I forget anyone?)

Not too bad I think. Though I would have really liked it if Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) were running. With this group, I feel a little like Treebeard, "Side? I'm not altogether on anybody's side, because nobody's altogether on my side." But, all of them are a good deal preferable to any of the Republicans.

HBO So Totally Rocks

If I've never told you to read A Game of Thrones, the first book in George R. R. Martin's A Song of Ice and Fire eries, you must not have been listening. And I'm happy to report that it's about to get more difficult to ignore me on this. Variety reports that HBO is planning on turning the series into a series. A TV series. On HBO. One book per season. I have died and gone to heaven. Variety:

HBO has acquired the rights to turn George R.R. Martin's bestselling fantasy series "A Song of Fire & Ice" into a dramatic series to be written and exec produced by David Benioff and D.B. Weiss.

"Fire" is the first TV project for Benioff ("Troy") and Weiss ("Halo") and will shoot in Europe or New Zealand. Benioff and Weiss will write every episode of each season together save one, which the author (a former TV writer) will script.

The series will begin with the 1996 first book, "A Game of Thrones," and the intention is for each novel (they average 1,000 pages each) to fuel a season's worth of episodes. Martin has nearly finished the fifth installment, but won't complete the seven-book cycle until 2011.

Martin confirms the rumors on his blog, Not a Blog:

I've already gotten close to a hundred emails this morning, just off the VARIETY article. I expect that number will have swollen to several hundred before the day is out. I appreciate all the good wishes and congratulations, but I am NOT going to be able to respond to all of you individually.

I will be making my own announcement on my news page, of course, and that may answer some of your questions, but I haven't actually written it yet, so please be patient.

I appreciate all the casting suggestions too, but guys, you're getting way way WAY ahead of yourselves. Developing a television series is a long and time-consuming process, and we're just getting started here. We only closed the deal a couple of days ago.

Casting suggestions... hmm... I'll be getting back to you all on that. But let me just say that Tyrion should not be played by Warwick Davis or a technoshrunk Elijah Wood.

Barack Obama, Shirtless

I'll admit to being taken a little aback by the Obama-mania in the media these last few weeks. I had thought Hillary would go into 2008 as the strong front-runner and would only begin to be seriously challenged in the waning months of 2007. I now think I was wrong and that Hillary is in danger of losing her front-runner status to Obama. Heck, I didn't even think Obama would run, considering that he was first elected to the Senate in 2004. Now Zogby has him leading in New Hampshire.

But it seems Democrats crave inspiration, and Obama provides that like few others. He is a media darling, the way McCain was during the 2000 campaign. It doesn't make him invincible, but it helps. As long as the media keeps its story going, that is. The press can be notoriously fickle, preferring to build someone up only to tear them down later. But McCain's had a long run of positive press. Obama might too.

Ok, so I'll also admit to having stolen my title from a post by Pink Lady over at In the Pink Texas. I think she should have used it as her title. Why? Because some people actually do google for 'Barack Obama, shirtless'. And when I do.. I mean when they do... they might be more likely to come across her excellent blog. But she didn't, so I did.

Anyway, here's what you googlers were looking for, via Hotline on Call of all places (Hint: he's not Hugh Jackman or Penelope Cruz):



Ok well maybe he's Penelope Cruz...

Oh, and I don't know if this has anything to do with anything, but it amuses me. Apparently he went by "Barry" in high school.

LA-Gov: Blanco Trails Big Time

New Orleans Times-Picayune:

Bobby Jindal (R) 59%
Kathleen Blanco (D) 35%

Hurricane Katrina really weakened Blanco. I don't know how she would survive a strong challenge from Jindal.

Life in Prison for Adultery

Scarlet letter, shmarlet shmletter. Adulterers can now get life in prison in Michigan. From the Detroit Free Press:

In a ruling sure to make philandering spouses squirm, Michigan's second-highest court says that anyone involved in an extramarital fling can be prosecuted for first-degree criminal sexual conduct, a felony punishable by up to life in prison.

"We cannot help but question whether the Legislature actually intended the result we reach here today," Judge William Murphy wrote in November for a unanimous Court of Appeals panel, "but we are curtailed by the language of the statute from reaching any other conclusion."

"Technically," he added, "any time a person engages in sexual penetration in an adulterous relationship, he or she is guilty of CSC I," the most serious sexual assault charge in Michigan's criminal code.

No one expects prosecutors to declare open season on cheating spouses. The ruling is especially awkward for Attorney General Mike Cox, whose office triggered it by successfully appealing a lower court's decision to drop CSC charges against a Charlevoix defendant. In November 2005, Cox confessed to an adulterous relationship.

This is how conservatives want the courts to be, folks. Activist. Their rhetoric is designed to obscure that.

Obama Is In

Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) announced today that he forming an exploratory committee to investigate the ease with which he could run for President. This means he is running. From his website:

As many of you know, over the last few months I have been thinking hard about my plans for 2008. Running for the presidency is a profound decision - a decision no one should make on the basis of media hype or personal ambition alone - and so before I committed myself and my family to this race, I wanted to be sure that this was right for us and, more importantly, right for the country.

I certainly didn't expect to find myself in this position a year ago. But as I've spoken to many of you in my travels across the states these past months; as I've read your emails and read your letters; I've been struck by how hungry we all are for a different kind of politics.

So I've spent some time thinking about how I could best advance the cause of change and progress that we so desperately need.

The decisions that have been made in Washington these past six years, and the problems that have been ignored, have put our country in a precarious place. Our economy is changing rapidly, and that means profound changes for working people. Many of you have shared with me your stories about skyrocketing health care bills, the pensions you've lost and your struggles to pay for college for your kids. Our continued dependence on oil has put our security and our very planet at risk. And we're still mired in a tragic and costly war that should have never been waged.

But challenging as they are, it's not the magnitude of our problems that concerns me the most. It's the smallness of our politics. America's faced big problems before. But today, our leaders in Washington seem incapable of working together in a practical, common sense way. Politics has become so bitter and partisan, so gummed up by money and influence, that we can't tackle the big problems that demand solutions.

And that's what we have to change first.

We have to change our politics, and come together around our common interests and concerns as Americans.

This won't happen by itself. A change in our politics can only come from you; from people across our country who believe there's a better way and are willing to work for it.

Years ago, as a community organizer in Chicago, I learned that meaningful change always begins at the grassroots, and that engaged citizens working together can accomplish extraordinary things.

So even in the midst of the enormous challenges we face today, I have great faith and hope about the future - because I believe in you.

And that's why I wanted to tell you first that I'll be filing papers today to create a presidential exploratory committee. For the next several weeks, I am going to talk with people from around the country, listening and learning more about the challenges we face as a nation, the opportunities that lie before us, and the role that a presidential campaign might play in bringing our country together. And on February 10th, at the end of these decisions and in my home state of Illinois, I'll share my plans with my friends, neighbors and fellow Americans.

In the meantime, I want to thank all of you for your time, your suggestions, your encouragement and your prayers. And I look forward to continuing our conversation in the weeks and months to come.

Chris Bowers explains why Obama's move is smart politics in the context of the Democratic primary. Edwards has already announced. This will likely force Hillary into the race. (Officially I mean). And unless Al Gore or John Kerry jumps in, and I think they won't, that will be the first tier for the Democratic nomination. I couldn't be more thrilled. I like all of these politicians. They would all be a heck of a lot better than what we've got now in the White House.

CO-Sen: Allard Retiring

According to the Rocky Mountain News, Republican Senator Wayne Allard, the sponsor of the despicable Federal Marriage Amendement in the Senate, is providing Democrats with their first 2008 Senate open seat opportunity:

Sen. Wayne Allard said today he will honor his term-limits pledge and leave at the end of 2008, creating a replacement fight that should turn Colorado into one of the country’s biggest electoral battlegrounds.

"I just didn't think I could back away from the (term limits) commitment. It is a matter of integrity and keeping your commitments. I have never wavered on that," Allard told the Rocky Mountain News.

Allard was already a top Democratic target since Colorado has been trending blue lately, and Allard has always been a weak incumbent. Plus if he ran, he'd be reneging on a term limits pledge. Well, anyway, good news for Senate Democrats.

Republicans Divided

The fallout from the 2006 wave election continues. After years of stories about how divided Democrats are, the press is apparently starting to catch on to the fact that Republicans are now more divided than Democrats. From today's Washington Post:

Freed from the pressures of being the majority and from the heavy hand of former leaders including retired representative Tom DeLay (R-Tex.), many back-bench Republicans are showing themselves to be more moderate than their conservative leadership and increasingly mindful of shifting voter sentiment. The closest vote last week -- Friday's push to require the federal government to negotiate lower drug prices for Medicare -- pulled 24 Republicans. The Democrats' homeland security bill attracted 68 Republicans, the minimum wage increase 82.

Division among Republicans is showing because Democrats are finally able to spotlight them with legislation of their choosing, now that they are in control of Congress.

Democrats didn't create the divisions among Republicans. They've always been there. But past strong-arming from DeLay in the House and from a then popular President Bush in the White House (and his emissary of evil Karl Rove) had managed to whip the Republicans into a legislative monolith. That is now gone. And Democrats deserve some credit for pulling down the monolith.

From 2004 to 2006, Democrats showed incredible unity in comparison with the past, while Republicans chose corruption and unpopular positions on issues. It all began with Bush's failure to unify the country after his narrow re-election. Then came the Schiavo case, the failure of Social Security reform, deterioration of the Iraq War, Hurricane Katrina, the Dubai ports deal, Bob Ney, Randy "Duke" Cunningham, and Mark Foley, to name a few Republican failures.

The public soundly rejected Bush and his party in the 2006 election, delivering Congress to the Democrats. But Bush continues to defy the will of the people on the most important issue: Iraq. He plans to send more troops when the public wants him to start withdrawing. That is driving down his popularity, and driving away his allies in Congress. And that's what is ultimately behind stories like the one in the Post.

Friday Night Postpourri

• Karl-Thomas is moving to Boston and handing over Burnt Orange Report. Good luck, Karl-Thomas!


• 2/3 of Americans oppose Bush's plans to escalate the Iraq war by sending more troops. When I think about Bush these days, why can I not get the image of the ignominious end of Denethor in Return of the King out of my head?
  
  



• Coahuila, just across the border, became the second Mexican state to legalize same-sex civil unions. They're really not that far behind us. We've got Massachusetts, where we can marry, and Vermont, Connecticut and New Jersey with civil unions, and California with domestic partnerships. That's 5 of 50, compared with Mexico's 2 of 31.
  


• Stuart Rothenberg asks, "Can a Republican Win the Presidential Race in 2008?" The answer.. may surprise you.


• A good old-fashioned piano party! My greatest achievement in the last few months was a devastatingly complicated three-handed concerto with my nephew Noah:

Back in Gear

If Rep. Eddie Rodriguez has his way, established bloggers will be given access to the floor of the Texas State House. Via McBlogger:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Friday January 12, 2007 For More Information: Tashara Mitchell (512) 463-0674

Representative Eddie Rodriguez to propose amendment to support Bloggers

AUSTIN-- Representative Eddie Rodriguez (D-Austin) will propose an amendment to the house rules today that will give established Bloggers access to the House floor.

"With the rise of citizen journalism, it no longer makes sense to limit access to House business solely to the traditional press outlets," said Representative Rodriguez.

Political blogs are some of the limited media that focus solely on reporting the happenings at the Capital and many of these Bloggers regularly break stories that show up in the traditional media.

Bloggers, as defined by this revised rule, produce original reporting and informed comment worthy of credentials. This amendment will allow increasingly popular non-traditional media, the privileges necessary to more effectively inform citizens on governmental issues.

"This kind of measure would encourage citizen participation in government and help demystify the system for the general public," said Rodriguez.

I suppose I better get my butt back in gear and start posting again if I'm to have any hope in being classified as an "established" blogger, huh? Thanks for the motivation, Rep. Rodriguez.